Economics: UN says stability under threat

The United Nations uses nice, polite words in its media releases. For example, it says "turbulence" when it means "snafu."

But it's clear what it means: this year the equivalent of the entire population (including the illegals that hide below the line) of Singapore will be thrown out of work because of the effects of the US subprime lending mess.

It's the equivalent of the entire working population of London. It's more than the entire working population of Hong Kong and - just so you get the picture - about half of the entire working population of Malaysia.

That's five million people will lose their jobs, says the United Nations. Actually, that's not quite what it says - it says that unemployment will rise by five million - so more than that will lose their jobs, but some will find another one at some point in the year.

The UN's International Labour Office says that, globally, decreases in growth in developed countries has been offset in the rest of the world, especially Asia (which it does not clearly define) which has witnessed strong economic and job growth.

But the ILO expects that to slow during 2008 -

The forecast for this year differs from 2007, considered by ILO to be a “watershed year” in that it saw a stabilisation of global labour markets with more people in work, some 45 million new jobs and only a small increase in the number of those unemployed, to a total of nearly 190 million worldwide. “This year’s global jobs picture is one of contrasts and uncertainty,” said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia. “While global growth is annually producing millions of new jobs, unemployment remains unacceptably high and may go to levels not seen before this year.”He added that although more people are currently employed than ever before, more jobs does not necessarily mean decent jobs. “Too many people, if not unemployed, remain among the ranks of the working poor, the vulnerable or the discouraged.”

Source: UN media release

But the ILO also highlights disturbing information - an estimated 487 million people in work still earn less than USD1 per day. And 1.3 milliard (that's more than 43% of the total global workforce) earn less than USD2 a day.

But the ILO has an apparently socialist agenda: its media release says "

“What is apparent is that economic progress doesn’t automatically translate into new and decent jobs,” said Mr. Somavia, emphasising that “labour market policies must be at the centre of macroeconomic policies to ensure that economic growth is inclusive and that development involves good, decent work.”Decent work, as defined by the ILO, provides for opportunity and income; rights, voice and recognition; family stability; personal development; and fairness and gender equality.

The question, then, is whether developing countries will want to pay too much attention to the ILO's pleas for better wages and conditions when those appear to be the beginning of a wedge that leads to socialist policies, workers; councils and unionisation - which, ultimately, some may argue are core reasons why developed countries can no longer afford to manufacture the goods that are now made in developing countries.