The Risk Professional: Egypt's sudden meltdown

The British Foreign Office has issued a warning that emphasises the extent of the danger: not only is it warning against travel to Cairo, Giza, Alexandria, Luxor and Suez but those already there are being told to get out. But there is a sinister undertone: get out "only if it is safe." The clear implication is simple: the streets are dangerous and exit routes are not secure. "Stay indoors wherever possible" is the stark message in the latest travel warning.

It's the mix of business and tourist destinations that will cause the most concern: those on organised trips will have the benefit of a UK contract with a tour operator who should find ways to keep open accommodation, albeit at a cost. But, so long as the airports are open, then the companies are not responsible for those costs.

Independent travellers are much more exposed: not only are they at the mercy of local hotel and other operators, there is no independent confirmation of their whereabouts. For the business traveller, holed up in his city centre hotel, that's not such a big problem but for the tourist, perhaps visiting several sites with no fixed itinerary, the situation is much more worrisome.

The FCO recommends leaving "by commercial means," a statement that makes it clear that no UK government evacuation is planned.

The FCO's latest advice is that Cairo airport is open and safe, especially for transit passengers but that there is a curfew from 15:00 to 08:00 local time across the country. This means, obviously, that getting to the airport - even if there is a flight available - will be even more difficult than usually given the levels of traffic and, in some places, poor roads.

However, says the FCO (in a somewhat ironic statement on its website) "the internet is not currently working and mobile phone coverage is intermittent."

That, some say, was due to government intervention to prevent protesters setting up "events" through social media (some say Facebook, in particular, has been blocked) and SMS. But there is also the simple fact that both are subject to massive overload.

However, what actually happened was that all but one of Egypt's internet service providers (which are the gateway between users and the wider world) "withdrew" i.e. shut down what are known as "border gateway protocols" - in effect, removing the information that allows routing of inbound and outbound traffic. Simply, Egypt disappeared off the internet's map.

"There is a high threat from terrorism in Egypt. Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in public places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers, such as hotels and restaurants," the FCO says, going on "The Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza is open daily between 09:00 and 19:00 for humanitarian aid providers and those with prior clearance. However, from Friday 24 December 2010, the crossing will close on local weekends (Friday and Saturday) and public holidays."

The USA's State Department has also issued a travel warning and they are coming thick and fast from other governments, especially those with substantial numbers of citizens in Egypt.

The USA says "the Department of State urges U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel to Egypt and advises U.S. citizens currently in Egypt to defer non-essential movement and to exercise caution. In the event of demonstrations, U.S. citizens in Egypt should remain in their residences or hotels until the situation stabilises. Security forces may block off the area around the U.S. Embassy during demonstrations and U.S. citizens should not attempt to come to the U.S. Embassy or the Tahrir Square area at such times."

India has recommended airlines carry citizens home with as little formality as possible.

Airlines are offering full refunds or ticket deferments - Singapore Airlines was amongst the first to do so when it issued a notice on Friday. Although schedules are operating normally, the airline's Cairo office closed yesterday at midday with no planned re-opening date. Passengers are advised to call the airline's head office in Singapore (+65-6580-7042 - not toll free).

As the government tries to regain control, troops are now patrolling the streets but martial law has not been imposed. However, in a surprising turn, the government ordered the closure yesterday (Sunday) of the Cairo bureau of TV station al Jazeera.